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Has Steam completely stifled Valve?

During the 90's and the first decade of the 2000's, Valve was one of the biggest and most famous game developer corporations.

Their first game ever, Half-Life, was not only hugely popular, but extremely innovative, influential, and a trend-setter. It was one of those fundamental games that does something new, in a manner that really works, and thus influences and defines how similar games are developed in the future. (For instance, while perhaps not the very first one, it was the first highly popular and highly influential game that used interactive cutscenes, ie. cutscenes where the player is still in full control of the playable character. It was also one of the first first-person shooters with a heavy emphasis on storytelling.)

Counter-Strike, based on the Half-Life engine, was, again, one of the most influential games of that genre (ie. online "arena-style" multiplayer first-person shooter). Not the first one, of course, but one of the most influential ones, and which once again presented new ideas that defined the industry and game development.

After numerous spinoffs of both games, Valve only went stronger than ever before. Half-Life 2 is one of the best-rated and most liked games in video gaming history, often appearing in top 10 lists of best games in existence, and almost perfect scores even after 13 years. It took what Half-Life did right, and turned it up to eleven, and did it really well. It was, once again, a trend-setter and a great influence in video game development.

After a few spin-offs and sequels, Valve showed once again that they have absolutely no shortage of gaming innovation prowess, and created one of the absolute crown jewels of video gaming: Portal. If there was ever a game that rivals or even surpasses the influence of Half-Life in video games, it was this one. Team Fortress 2, published about the same time, was also very well received.

Valve tried with something slightly different with Left 4 Dead and its sequel soon after, and while not negatively received, most people's reaction was rather indifferent. But this was only a temporary misstep.

Portal 2 expanded the simpler idea of Portal into an even more full-fledged game, and once again did it extremely well, and was very well received.

Then... it just kind of stopped. They developed Dota 2, which like Left 4 Dead is not exactly negatively received, but not many people discuss it. Again, indifference from the most part.

And that's about it. Their last game with a huge impact, Portal 2, was released in 2011, a bit over six years ago. Since then, nothing of any prominence.

Valve has tried their hands on completely different venues, with very poor success. They tried to create the "Steam machines" as a competitor to game consoles. It failed miserably. They created a new game controller, which tried to be innovative, and while at first somewhat positively received, over the years it has been more or less forgotten, and not many people care much about it. Not many people even know what a Steam Link is.

Valve really tried to hit the jackpot with the HTC Vive, and while many people still pretend that it's a huge success, the numbers say otherwise: Less than a half million units sold in over a year after release, which by any possible standard of measurement is an utter commercial failure for gaming hardware. (For example, in comparison, if a game console sells less than 10 million units, it's generally considered a commercial failure.) Also, the library of triple-A games for the system is absolutely abysmal, another sign of a complete commercial failure.

It seems that Valve has forgotten what they are good at: Making innovative video games. They have pretty much stopped making them, even though there's a huge amount of demand. (Half-Life 3 is, possibly, the most anticipated game in history. Yet Valve simply refuses to make it. At this point it's almost certain that they will never make it.)

Why did Valve stop making games? Why have they stop being one of the video gaming giants, and seemingly become a corporation that produces almost nothing?

My hypothesis is that the culprit is Steam. It's a cash cow, and Valve has stopped having the need to do anything else. They have no motivation to create and innovate anymore. Even if they did develop a new game, their profits from it would probably be but a small fraction of what Steam earns them.

Of course I don't know what goes inside Valve, but I wouldn't be surprised if they did at some point have a development team for Half-Life 3, and possibly other games, but growing disinterest in the project, especially from the managers and higher-ups, made the project drag out more and more over time, with less and less resources put into it. Developers put into other unrelated projects, not many resources allocated for that project, not much oversight nor supervision over the project, no deadlines, a very lax attitude from the higher-ups... Probably something like that.

I'm certain that deep within the digital vaults of Valve there is some kind of half-developed alpha version of Half-Life 3, and possibly other projects, which have pretty much been abandoned due to lack of interest, in an eternal state of "maybe we'll continue developing it some day".

So, my guess is that Steam killed Half-Life 3, and all other Valve games. Without Steam we would probably have had it many years ago.

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